Investment Challenges in Kenya Amid Macroeconomic Turbulence
The investment landscape in Kenya is currently grappling with significant hurdles as a result of prevailing macroeconomic conditions. These conditions have raised apprehension across various investment sectors. This article sheds light on the pivotal macroeconomic factors that are shaping the investment environment within the country.
Kenyan Currency Depreciation and Inflation
Over the preceding year, the Kenyan currency has witnessed a notable decline, with the shilling recording a 24.6% loss against the US dollar year-to-date. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) recently highlighted that the Consumer Price Index for October displayed a month-on-month rise in inflation for the third consecutive month, elevating by 0.1 percent points to hit 6.9 percent in October, up from 6.7 percent in September.
While the current inflation rates are not as steep as in previous years, the ongoing trend has triggered concerns, particularly considering projections that indicate a further increase in inflation. This development raises questions about the implications of these indicators on investors in both the Equities and Fixed Income markets.
Impact on Fixed-Income Securities
Fixed-income securities, including government bonds, are particularly sensitive to fluctuations in inflation rates. In recent months, the government has had to offer elevated interest rates to entice investors to engage with its securities. For example, a mere two weeks ago, the 91-day Treasury bill yield exceeded 15.0%, and this upward trend continued in the subsequent week. The devaluation of the currency and the surging inflation rates have compelled investors to demand higher returns. With inflation on the rise, there is mounting pressure on bond yields, potentially affecting returns for bondholders. Essentially, the real return on bonds is dwindling as inflation continues to escalate.
Equities Market Struggles
The Equities Market in Kenya has not remained unaffected by these challenges, witnessing significant drops in the share values of major companies listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. This downtrend has resulted in substantial capital losses for numerous investors.
For instance, Safaricom Ltd.’s shares plummeted to KES 12.3 as of November 1, 2023, from KES 25.0 on the same date the previous year. Similarly, KCB Bank observed a significant decline from 37.7 in November last year to 17.20 on November 1, 2023. These considerable losses can be attributed to various macroeconomic factors, including currency devaluation and surging inflation rates.
Resilience and Adaptive Strategies
Despite the challenging investment environment, several investors have demonstrated resilience. Strategies embraced by these investors include diversification and the adoption of a long-term perspective. Given the volatility of these investment assets, another emerging strategy involves exploring Real Estate and Private Equity investments, which are less susceptible to the impacts of inflation and currency devaluation. In these uncertain times, appealing options for investors in these two asset classes may involve exploring inflation-protected securities and dividend-paying equities.
